Josh Molnar releases research paper on Bitcoin halving clock cycles

Josh Molnar has published a research paper titled "Bitcoin Runs on a Clock" on SSRN, proposing that Bitcoin's classic cycle signals have decayed as price volatility has narrowed, but the halving clock pattern based on historical data remains stable. The paper notes that the indicative value of classic cycle indicators such as MVRV, Mayer Multiple, and Pi Cycle Top is weakening; statistics show that the tops of Bitcoin's three mature cycles occurred 525 days, 546 days, and 534 days after the corresponding halving events, respectively, while the three completed bear market bottoms occurred 406 days, 364 days, and 366 days after the corresponding cycle tops, respectively. Based on the above statistical patterns, the paper estimates that the bottom window for this cycle is from October 5 to November 16, 2026, and the top window for the next cycle is 525 to 546 days after the subsequent halving event, tentatively set from late September to mid-October 2029, with the specific timing to be adjusted once the exact date of the halving event is confirmed.

AI-generated from reports · 57 min agoUpdated

Not enough consecutive observations yet; trend is not drawn.