Anthony Milewski analyzes U.S. critical mineral supply chain dependency risks

Anthony Milewski, an analyst at The Oregon Group, published an analysis stating that if the United States wants to expand its missile inventory, it must first secure critical raw materials from conflict-free regions, as Western defense supply chains have a high level of dependence on Chinese critical minerals. He cited data showing that during the 16-day Iran war, coalition forces consumed over 11,000 rounds of ammunition, and replenishing only small arms ammunition would require approximately 4,000 kg of tungsten. The United States produced no tungsten domestically in 2025, while China accounts for 79% of global tungsten ore production. The U.S. is completely import-dependent for 12 critical minerals, and relies on imports for over half of its supply for another 34 minerals. He also noted that starting in January 2027, U.S. defense procurement restrictions on related tungsten products will extend to the mining and raw material stages, excluding materials of Chinese origin even if processed elsewhere. From January to July 2026, prices of related minerals have already risen more than threefold.

AI-generated from reports · 1 days agoUpdated