Paper examines whether ecosystem activity improves TVL return predictability

Matthew Brigida published the q-fin.PR working paper "Does Ecosystem Activity Validate TVL?" on arXiv, examining whether combining DeFi total value locked (TVL) with ecosystem activity metrics such as adoption, usage, development activity, protocol revenue, and social attention makes TVL a more informative return signal. Tests based on available samples from 2022-2025 show that, after multiple testing correction, none of the six on-chain double sorts rejected the null hypothesis; the conclusion was consistent across 83 common weeks with social attention data. Some uncorrected specifications showed rejection, but none survived Holm correction; the rejection for social attention was only marginally significant under asymptotic inference and not significant under moving block bootstrap.

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