First quantitative evaluation of the ICT AMD model on Nasdaq futures released

Veer Taylor published an academic paper presenting the first systematic quantitative test of the accumulation-manipulation-distribution (AMD) intraday price model proposed by ICT on CME E-Mini Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ). The paper uses four years of 15-minute OHLCV data from Databento, spanning January 2022 to July 2026, converting AMD rules into a strict mechanical trading strategy. It conducts chi-squared tests, Benjamini-Hochberg multiple comparison correction, and market-state conditional analysis on the statistical characteristics of 484 manipulation signal days. The test results disclosed in the paper show: 57% of valid signals completed price delivery to all target levels before the 9:40 New York time entry window opened; when signals aligned with trend direction, accuracy was 62%-71%, while when signals were counter-trend, accuracy was only 25%-30%.

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