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19 OctMon
Mon
Bank for International Settlements BIS: Research papersAI Score4848
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a research paper assessing the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation in the euro area, the United Kingdom, and the United States. As of May 2026, the conflict is expected to push up inflation in these regions by a combined 1.5 to 2 percentage points in 2026 and 2027, with rising inflation expectations potentially contributing an additional 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points. The scale and duration of this inflation shock are smaller than those of the 2021-2024 inflation crisis, and long-term inflation expectations remain broadly stable.
Bridgewater released a research report on January 7, 2026, estimating that AI capital spending will contribute about 140 basis points to U.S. GDP growth in 2026 and about 150 basis points in 2027, a scale comparable to the contribution of business investment to growth during the dot-com bubble.
Bridgewater released a research report, arguing that the inflation center in the post-pandemic era has risen compared with that before the pandemic, 2% is more like a bottom than an upper limit, and the distribution of inflation outcomes is wider and skewed upward. The report compares the current environment with that in the 2010s, pointing out that restraining factors such as China's export of low-priced goods, shale oil production, and post-crisis deleveraging have weakened; while the medium-term expansion deficit of about 7% of US GDP, the compromised independence of the Federal Reserve, tariffs and trade restructuring, potential depreciation of the US dollar, and AI power and commodity demand constitute structural inflationary pressures.
The Bridgewater research team believes the AI bubble has not yet arrived, noting that the transformative technology and mature macro monetary environment needed to fuel a major bubble are already in place. This view addresses market concerns about AI valuations, commercialization, and slowing technological progress, while also highlighting risks of AI misuse and regulatory uncertainty. Bridgewater established AIA Labs in early 2023 with the goal of building a fully AI-driven investor that can outperform humans.
