Alpha Architect interprets a 2026 paper by Andreasen and Bro published in the Review of Finance. The study combines traditional valuation data with investor expectation surveys to propose a new method for distinguishing between fundamental-driven price increases and speculative bubbles.
Read originalThe 2026 Marsh CFA Institute Global Pension Index is released by Marsh in partnership with the CFA Institute and the Monash Centre for Financial Studies, covering 55 retirement income systems worldwide. It uses adequacy (40% weight), sustainability (35% weight), and integrity (25% weight) as core evaluation dimensions.
Read originalThe Ministry of Finance will issue RMB treasury bonds through the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's Central Moneymarkets Unit. The tender announcement, tender information memorandum, and tender-related information provided by the issuance and custodian agent for this issuance have all been simultaneously released as attachments.
Read originalThe Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced the tender results for three Exchange Fund Bills (EF Bills) on October 20, 2026, namely issues Q2642, H2671, and Y2696, with key tender data including allocated amounts, accepted yields, and pro-rata allotment ratios disclosed. It also announced that tenders for Exchange Fund Bills of issues Q2643 and H2671 will be held on October 27, 2026, with a total planned issuance amount of HK$80,782 million.
Read originalJuergen Renn of the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History constructed a game-theoretic model of climate coalition formation with dual registration channels, finding that the model exhibits bistability when the channels are sufficiently strong, with a critical mass separating a residual club from a near-universal coalition.
Read originalAgent-based simulation research based on the capitalist economic model proposed by Ian Wright shows that the ratio R of average per capita wealth to average wage is the core parameter determining the degree of wealth and income distribution inequality; a higher R value corresponds to a higher level of inequality measured by the Gini coefficient.
Read originalThe paper constructs a three-party theoretical model of trade sanctions involving the sanctioning party, the target party, and a neutral third party, deriving three core conclusions: alliance members typically set different tariffs under Stackelberg timing or imperfect transfer payments; as sanctions tighten, the sanctioning party's welfare may exceed the optimal level under unilateral terms of trade; and when the sanctioning party and the target party compete for the support of a neutral third party, the feasible range of sanctions targets can be clearly defined. The model is applied to a calibrated analysis of sanctions on Russian crude oil, showing that if China and India take unilateral action or the sanctioning alliance offers better terms, the effectiveness of sanctions can increase by approximately 70%.
Read originalThe Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has released a working paper examining the role of Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) regulation for large U.S. banks in driving the growth of private credit markets.
Read originalThe Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a research paper assessing the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation in the euro area, the United Kingdom, and the United States. As of May 2026, the conflict is expected to push up inflation in these regions by a combined 1.5 to 2 percentage points in 2026 and 2027, with rising inflation expectations potentially contributing an additional 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points. The scale and duration of this inflation shock are smaller than those of the 2021-2024 inflation crisis, and long-term inflation expectations remain broadly stable.
Read originalThe Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has released research papers from its 25th Annual Conference, held on June 26, 2026, in Basel, Switzerland, under the theme 'Central Banking and Macro-Financial Stability in a Fragmented World Economy.' Three papers were published as BIS Working Papers 1384, 1385, and 1386, with a fourth to follow as BIS Working Paper 1387.
Read originalThe Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released Working Paper No. 1386, which proposes an LLM-based reasoning pipeline to identify firms' actions in response to geoeconomic pressure from earnings call transcripts and summarize the underlying logic. Compared with traditional NLP methods, it can extract implicit conditional relationships in the text rather than merely counting keywords.
Read originalThe Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has released a working paper that studies the transmission effects of offshore NDF markets on onshore spot exchange rates, using centralized clearing NDF transaction-level data for 10 emerging market currencies from 2013 to 2025. The study shows that a $1 billion long USD order flow causes the onshore spot exchange rate to depreciate by approximately 10 basis points, while the offshore NDF exchange rate moves by about 18 basis points, and offshore transactions widen the spread between offshore and onshore rates; when dealer balance sheets are strained, the impact on the spot exchange rate is larger.
Read originalThis article analyzes the combination of risk premiums for TIPS and crude oil. Based on data as of October 9, 2026, the 10-year TIPS real yield is 2.91%, up 116 basis points from the same period last year, and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate is 2.33%. This dual-asset portfolio can enhance expected returns with virtually no additional risk, while also offering educational value for dynamic position management.
Read originalA research paper published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) points out that geopolitical tensions are increasing the risk of disruptions to key chokepoints in global supply chains. Substitution effects and inventory buffers can mitigate output shocks, but often come with higher input prices. Addressing such disruptions requires tailored policies based on the cause, the criticality of the chokepoint, and the private sector's ability to substitute and buffer.
Read originalThe Hong Kong Monetary Authority, on behalf of the Hong Kong SAR Government, announced that it will conduct a tender for 2-year RMB institutional government bonds via tap issuance of existing 3-year government bonds (issue number 03GB2807001) on October 22, 2026. The tender size is RMB 750 million, with a settlement date of October 26, 2026.
Read originalThis research paper, published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), is based on the credit theory of money. Starting from payment as a fundamental monetary behavior, it outlines four core tensions in the operation of the monetary system and proposes that money is essentially an institutional achievement sustained by trust. The paper applies this framework to the analysis of gold, Bitcoin, and stablecoins. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the BIS or its member central banks.
Read originalOn October 13, 2026, the Federal Reserve Board released the minutes of its discount rate meetings held on August 17, September 9, and September 16, 2026. The minutes disclose the Board's deliberations and determination of the discount rate provided to depository institutions through the discount window. This rate-setting process is independent of the Federal Open Market Committee's process for setting the target range for the federal funds rate.
Read originalThe Hong Kong Monetary Authority released the Exchange Fund Analytical Account as of end-September 2026. During the month, the Exchange Fund’s external assets decreased by HK$76.7 billion to HK$3,576.0 billion, the monetary base was HK$2,090.2 billion, claims on the private sector in Hong Kong were HK$473.0 billion, and external liabilities were HK$135.3 billion. The account is released in accordance with the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard, and the release schedule for the full year 2027 has also been announced.
Read originalFed Governor Waller delivered a speech at the Central Bank of Türkiye, explaining the rationale behind the September FOMC decision to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, and elaborating on the signaling role of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). He stated that the September rate hike was not based on a single inflation data point, but rather the cumulative result of multiple factors over recent months, including stabilization in the labor market, energy price increases driven by Middle East conflicts, high-tech consumer price increases driven by AI construction, and new tariff risks arising from trade conflicts.
Read originalThe Federal Reserve released the minutes of the September 15-16, 2026 FOMC meeting on October 7, 2026. The minutes are based solely on information available to the Committee at the time of the meeting. Regular FOMC meeting minutes are typically released three weeks after the policy decision announcement, and are available in HTML or PDF format on the Federal Reserve Board's website.
Read originalQuantpedia analyst Cyril Dujava released a study based on a sample of 13 US federal elections from 2000 to 2024, covering XLK, SPY, IYR, IEF, EEM, and GLD.
Read originalFed Governor and Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman delivered a speech at the Community Banking Research Conference, announcing that the Fed will reorganize its existing supervisory functions into five regions along state boundaries, with each region led by a regional director overseeing all supervisory activities, to address prior mismatches in supervisory authority and responsibilities and slow committee processes.
Read originalQuantocracy has compiled the latest links related to quantitative research as of October 2, 2026, covering a range of quantitative research topics. These include 897,000 tests conducted on approximately 150 types of trading patterns, an analysis of the impact of 13 oil price surges on U.S. stocks since 1970, a study of asset performance during periods of rising bond yields from 1963 to 2026, and research on an attention factor based on the WallStreetBets herding effect and BERT sentiment.
Read originalFed Governor Jefferson delivered a speech at the University of Virginia, outlining his assessment of the U.S. economy and monetary policy. In the first half of this year, U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.4%, roughly in line with the growth rate over the past two years, with AI-related investment being the main support for business investment. The unemployment rate stood at 4.1% in August, close to the maximum employment level.
Read originalFederal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivered remarks at the first nationwide Investing in Rural America conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. She noted that rural labor markets broadly track national trends, but with lower labor force participation and slower employment growth than urban areas in recent years. Rural inflation has largely aligned with national trends, though cost-of-living increases outpaced urban areas during the post-pandemic recovery, with energy and housing costs as the primary sources of divergence.
Read originalOpenBB has released the V5 major version line. The openbb meta-package is at 5.0.0, while the core, CLI, API, MCP server, router, and most providers are at 2.0.0. openbb-devtools is at 2.0.1, openbb-charting is at 4.0.0, and openbb-imf is at 3.0.0.
Key Takeaways:OpenBB V5 changes the license to Apache-2.0 and migrates to hatchling/uv packaging, a layered openbb.toml configuration, and a CLI 2.0 spec file mechanism. These changes can be used to evaluate upgrade paths and available data sources.
In his latest memo, Howard Marks explores recent attempts to suppress long-term government bond yields. He states clearly that the only sustainable solution is to address the underlying factors driving interest rates higher, even if such measures face political resistance. Any other approach is essentially an attempt to defy the laws of economics, and such attempts have never succeeded.
Read originalBridgewater released a research report pointing out that current carbon pricing mechanisms cover approximately 30% of global emissions, mainly dominated by the emissions trading systems of the European Union and China. The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is amplifying its impact and promoting the adoption of carbon pricing worldwide.
Read originalBlock Scholes released its Week 38 crypto derivatives market analysis report. The current market prices in a 93% probability of a rate hike at the Fed's next-day meeting, while the probability of the Clarity Act passing by the end of 2026 on Polymarket has dropped to 19%.
Read originalThe Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee have released economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with related tables and charts published at 2:00 p.m. ET. The projection materials are available in PDF format, accompanied by accessible versions. Media inquiries can be directed to the designated email address or contact phone number.
Read originalThe Federal Reserve released its FOMC monetary policy statement on September 16, 2026, deciding by a unanimous vote of 12 in favor and 0 against to raise the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate objectives.
Read originalAQR has updated its previous analysis of inflation sensitivity and inflation hedging, based on over 50 years of market data. While global inflation has fallen rapidly from its 2022 peak, inflation uncertainty persists in major markets, stock-bond correlations are at multi-decade highs, and traditional stock-bond portfolios are vulnerable to simultaneous losses during inflation shocks. Commodities and trend-following strategies perform strongly during inflation upcycles and can serve as inflation diversification tools, with implementation methods significantly affecting long-term returns and macro diversification outcomes.
Read originalNYU Professor Aswath Damodaran reviews the backdrop of rising U.S. Treasury yields in 2026, noting that the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.18% at the start of the year to 4.75% by the end of August, while 20-year and 30-year Treasury yields surpassed 5% during the year. He also compares the long-term trend of U.S. Treasury yields since 1962, as well as concurrent changes in government bond yields across multiple currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound.
Key Takeaways:One can learn to construct an intrinsic risk-free rate using the inflation rate plus real GDP growth, and combine it with changes in corporate cash flows to break down the differentiated impact of rising interest rates on stock valuations across industries.
Episode 125 of Deribit's Crypto Options Unplugged podcast, hosted by Imran Lakha and David Brickell, explores whether pressure in the global bond market could serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin's next major move.
Read originalThe Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC monetary policy meeting on August 19, 2026. The minutes were prepared based on the economic and financial information available to the Committee at the time of the meeting. FOMC regular meeting minutes are typically released three weeks after the policy decision is made. The minutes are available on the Federal Reserve Board's website in both HTML and PDF formats.
Read originalBridgewater has published an AI policy commentary arguing that AI is the most impactful technological change of our time, and that policy must be enacted immediately to balance its productivity benefits against risks of social disruption and safety incidents. Bridgewater proposes that US AI policy must prioritize societal resilience to technological shocks and establish a robust AI safety regulatory framework; otherwise, AI development will be forced to stall due to political unsustainability or major incidents.
Read originalAswath Damodaran, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, wrote an article analyzing the SEC's proposal to replace quarterly reports with semi-annual reports alongside new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's proposal to reduce forward guidance, arguing that both are essentially reducing the amount of public information that markets have become accustomed to receiving.
Read originalThe Federal Reserve released the FOMC monetary policy statement on July 29, 2026, voting 9-3 to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, continuing to implement a policy of ample reserves in the banking system.
Read originalAswath Damodaran, Professor at New York University Stern School of Business, released the July 2026 edition of his country risk research, systematically outlining the drivers, measurement methods, and impact on corporate valuation and investment.
Key Takeaways:You can learn the complete process of deriving country risk premiums for each country starting from the implied equity risk premium of mature markets, combined with sovereign ratings, default spreads, and relative volatility between stocks and bonds.
On July 14, 2026, the Federal Reserve Board released the minutes of its discount rate meetings held on June 8 and June 17, 2026, covering the review and determination of the discount rate offered to depository institutions through the discount window. The process for setting this discount rate is independent of the Federal Open Market Committee's process for setting the target range for the federal funds rate.
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