A Massive Divergence in the Rare Earth Market: Prices Up 23%, Miners Down 28%

In an overnight report, Canaccord's Critical Minerals team noted that despite strong rare earth market fundamentals—including rising NdPr prices and high premiums paid by Western buyers—rare earth stocks have underperformed, showing a disconnect from fundamentals. Year-to-date, NdPr prices outside China have risen 23%, while rare earth producers tracked by Canaccord have fallen an average of 28%, and developers have dropped 17%. The report argues that recent stock performance has been driven more by global macro factors than by supply and demand fundamentals in the rare earth market itself.