Researchers Release v4 of Empirical Study on European Defense Readiness
Get up to speed
Researcher d'Artis Kancs released v4 of an empirical study on European defense preparedness, conducting assessments across two dimensions: mobilization readiness and whole-of-society resilience, while incorporating hypothetical full trade war scenario simulations. The study shows that European defense industrial mobilization capabilities have significant shortcomings relative to the 1990 baseline, concentrated in production capacity, market fragmentation, and supply security; Europe as a whole has strong societal resilience, but significant differences exist between allies, with Nordic countries having relatively higher preparedness. Simulation results show that the hypothetical shock of a full trade war involving complete cessation of trade with China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea would amplify existing weaknesses in defense production and economic resilience; the adjustment cost of gradually reducing reliance on external vulnerable inputs in advance is far lower than sudden decoupling triggered by unexpected geopolitical events.
AI-generated from reports · 2 hr agoUpdated
Coverage timeline
Follow the coverage to understand different sides of the event.
- arXiv q-finAssessment of European Defense Readiness
An empirical study on European defense readiness evaluates it from two dimensions: mobilization readiness and whole-of-society resilience. The study shows that Europe's defense industrial mobilization capability has obvious shortcomings compared to the 1990 baseline, whole-of-society resilience is generally strong but varies significantly among European allies, and Nordic countries have relatively higher readiness. Simulation results indicate that the impact of a full-scale trade war will amplify existing weaknesses in defense production and economic resilience, and the adjustment cost of gradually reducing external dependence in advance is far lower than the abrupt decoupling triggered by sudden geopolitical events.
Trend of this event
Not enough consecutive observations yet; trend is not drawn.