Assessment of European Defense Readiness

An empirical study on European defense readiness evaluates it from two dimensions: mobilization readiness and whole-of-society resilience. The study shows that Europe's defense industrial mobilization capability has obvious shortcomings compared to the 1990 baseline, whole-of-society resilience is generally strong but varies significantly among European allies, and Nordic countries have relatively higher readiness. Simulation results indicate that the impact of a full-scale trade war will amplify existing weaknesses in defense production and economic resilience, and the adjustment cost of gradually reducing external dependence in advance is far lower than the abrupt decoupling triggered by sudden geopolitical events.