arXiv releases research paper on characteristics of prediction market contract listings

Ahmed Mahrous and Roberto Di Pietro published a prediction market research paper accepted by ICAIF 2026. Based on 802,863 settled markets on Polymarket from January 2023 to May 2026, the study uses only titles, descriptions, designated adjudication sources, and contract metadata available at contract launch to predict lifetime trading volume and subsequent settlement dispute risk. The study achieved an out-of-sample R² of 0.747 for log trading volume; the model predicting whether market trading volume reaches $1,000 had an AUC of 0.940 in contemporaneous evaluation, which dropped to 0.577 when trained on past quarters and tested on subsequent quarters in chronological order; the base incidence of settlement disputes was only 0.31%, and the model's average precision was 0.012, insufficient to support case-by-case prediction.

AI-generated from reports · 1 hr agoUpdated

Not enough consecutive observations yet; trend is not drawn.