arXiv q-fin· Ahmed Mahrous, Roberto Di Pietro·· 5 hr agoAI Score55
arXiv Paper: Prediction Market Contract Launch Information Can Predict Trading Volume and Dispute Risk
What Prediction-Market Contracts Reveal at Launch: Trading Volume and Dispute Risk
AI summary
The paper uses 802,863 settled markets on the Polymarket platform from January 2023 to May 2026, predicting market lifetime trading volume and subsequent settlement disputes solely based on title, description, designated resolution source, and contract metadata available at launch.
Source:arXiv q-fin · arxiv.org
Academic papers#Papers / Research#arXiv#Machine Learning#Crypto Assets#High-Frequency / Market Microstructure