BIS releases working paper on the inflation impact of the Iran conflict in Europe and the United States.
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The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a working paper assessing the inflation impact of the Iran conflict on the euro area, the United Kingdom, and the United States. As of May 2026, the conflict is expected to raise inflation in these regions by a combined approximately 1.5 to 2 percentage points over 2026 and 2027, with rising inflation expectations potentially contributing an additional 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points. The BIS notes that the scale and duration of this inflation shock are smaller than those of the 2021-2024 inflation crisis, and long-term inflation expectations remain broadly stable. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the BIS or its member central banks.
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- Bank for International Settlements BIS: Research papersAnalysis of Inflation Impact After the Iran Conflict
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a research paper assessing the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation in the euro area, the United Kingdom, and the United States. As of May 2026, the conflict is expected to push up inflation in these regions by a combined 1.5 to 2 percentage points in 2026 and 2027, with rising inflation expectations potentially contributing an additional 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points. The scale and duration of this inflation shock are smaller than those of the 2021-2024 inflation crisis, and long-term inflation expectations remain broadly stable.
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