Research Directions
How interest rates, inflation, and central-bank policy transmit to various asset classes.
73 related activitiesLast 30 days 42 itemsFeatured among them 5 items
Alpha Architect interprets a 2026 paper by Andreasen and Bro published in the Review of Finance. The study combines traditional valuation data with investor expectation surveys to propose a new method for distinguishing between fundamental-driven price increases and speculative bubbles.
Read originalThe 2026 Marsh CFA Institute Global Pension Index is released by Marsh in partnership with the CFA Institute and the Monash Centre for Financial Studies, covering 55 retirement income systems worldwide. It uses adequacy (40% weight), sustainability (35% weight), and integrity (25% weight) as core evaluation dimensions.
Read originalThe Ministry of Finance will issue RMB treasury bonds through the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's Central Moneymarkets Unit. The tender announcement, tender information memorandum, and tender-related information provided by the issuance and custodian agent for this issuance have all been simultaneously released as attachments.
Read originalThe Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced the tender results for three Exchange Fund Bills (EF Bills) on October 20, 2026, namely issues Q2642, H2671, and Y2696, with key tender data including allocated amounts, accepted yields, and pro-rata allotment ratios disclosed. It also announced that tenders for Exchange Fund Bills of issues Q2643 and H2671 will be held on October 27, 2026, with a total planned issuance amount of HK$80,782 million.
Read originalJuergen Renn of the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History constructed a game-theoretic model of climate coalition formation with dual registration channels, finding that the model exhibits bistability when the channels are sufficiently strong, with a critical mass separating a residual club from a near-universal coalition.
Read originalA study based on 2.8 million EU ETS trades and compliance records from 2005 to 2022 shows that 37% of regulated operators in the world’s largest carbon market do not participate in trading each year, and this phenomenon persists. Trading concentrates in the April compliance month, when returns are systematically higher, operator order flow can predict returns, and this effect is concentrated among frequent traders. A model incorporating market entry costs, limited intermediation, and heterogeneous information can explain these features. Staggering compliance deadlines into four groups can reduce the compliance-month premium by 58% without changing the overall cap.
Read originalAgent-based simulation research based on the capitalist economic model proposed by Ian Wright shows that the ratio R of average per capita wealth to average wage is the core parameter determining the degree of wealth and income distribution inequality; a higher R value corresponds to a higher level of inequality measured by the Gini coefficient.
Read originalResearchers used proprietary panel data of commercial mortgages from 1998 to 2021 and adopted deep neural networks (DNN) to distinguish liquidity-constrained default from strategic default. The study found that, under delinquency conditions, property net operating income (NOI) has a more significant impact on default rates than loan-to-value ratio (LTV), and the threshold for dividing the two types of defaults remained stable during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020-2021 COVID-19 commercial real estate shock.
Read originalThe paper constructs a three-party theoretical model of trade sanctions involving the sanctioning party, the target party, and a neutral third party, deriving three core conclusions: alliance members typically set different tariffs under Stackelberg timing or imperfect transfer payments; as sanctions tighten, the sanctioning party's welfare may exceed the optimal level under unilateral terms of trade; and when the sanctioning party and the target party compete for the support of a neutral third party, the feasible range of sanctions targets can be clearly defined. The model is applied to a calibrated analysis of sanctions on Russian crude oil, showing that if China and India take unilateral action or the sanctioning alliance offers better terms, the effectiveness of sanctions can increase by approximately 70%.
Read originalThis paper proposes a generalized variance framework based on the determinant of the instantaneous covariance matrix of asset log returns for pricing multi-asset discrete swaps, which captures the joint discreteness of multivariate asset returns while accounting for their dependence structure. The framework is constructed under Heston and Barndorff-Nielsen-Shephard (BNS) stochastic volatility models, deriving analytical pricing expressions for the three-asset Heston model and tractable approximations for the corresponding BNS model.
Read originalThe Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has released a working paper examining the role of Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) regulation for large U.S. banks in driving the growth of private credit markets.
Read originalThe Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a research paper assessing the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation in the euro area, the United Kingdom, and the United States. As of May 2026, the conflict is expected to push up inflation in these regions by a combined 1.5 to 2 percentage points in 2026 and 2027, with rising inflation expectations potentially contributing an additional 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points. The scale and duration of this inflation shock are smaller than those of the 2021-2024 inflation crisis, and long-term inflation expectations remain broadly stable.
Read originalThe Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has released research papers from its 25th Annual Conference, held on June 26, 2026, in Basel, Switzerland, under the theme 'Central Banking and Macro-Financial Stability in a Fragmented World Economy.' Three papers were published as BIS Working Papers 1384, 1385, and 1386, with a fourth to follow as BIS Working Paper 1387.
Read originalThe Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released Working Paper No. 1386, which proposes an LLM-based reasoning pipeline to identify firms' actions in response to geoeconomic pressure from earnings call transcripts and summarize the underlying logic. Compared with traditional NLP methods, it can extract implicit conditional relationships in the text rather than merely counting keywords.
Read originalThe Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has released a working paper that studies the transmission effects of offshore NDF markets on onshore spot exchange rates, using centralized clearing NDF transaction-level data for 10 emerging market currencies from 2013 to 2025. The study shows that a $1 billion long USD order flow causes the onshore spot exchange rate to depreciate by approximately 10 basis points, while the offshore NDF exchange rate moves by about 18 basis points, and offshore transactions widen the spread between offshore and onshore rates; when dealer balance sheets are strained, the impact on the spot exchange rate is larger.
Read originalThis article analyzes the combination of risk premiums for TIPS and crude oil. Based on data as of October 9, 2026, the 10-year TIPS real yield is 2.91%, up 116 basis points from the same period last year, and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate is 2.33%. This dual-asset portfolio can enhance expected returns with virtually no additional risk, while also offering educational value for dynamic position management.
Read originalA research paper published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) points out that geopolitical tensions are increasing the risk of disruptions to key chokepoints in global supply chains. Substitution effects and inventory buffers can mitigate output shocks, but often come with higher input prices. Addressing such disruptions requires tailored policies based on the cause, the criticality of the chokepoint, and the private sector's ability to substitute and buffer.
Read originalThe Hong Kong Monetary Authority, on behalf of the Hong Kong SAR Government, announced that it will conduct a tender for 2-year RMB institutional government bonds via tap issuance of existing 3-year government bonds (issue number 03GB2807001) on October 22, 2026. The tender size is RMB 750 million, with a settlement date of October 26, 2026.
Read originalThis research paper, published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), is based on the credit theory of money. Starting from payment as a fundamental monetary behavior, it outlines four core tensions in the operation of the monetary system and proposes that money is essentially an institutional achievement sustained by trust. The paper applies this framework to the analysis of gold, Bitcoin, and stablecoins. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the BIS or its member central banks.
Read originalOn October 13, 2026, the Federal Reserve Board released the minutes of its discount rate meetings held on August 17, September 9, and September 16, 2026. The minutes disclose the Board's deliberations and determination of the discount rate provided to depository institutions through the discount window. This rate-setting process is independent of the Federal Open Market Committee's process for setting the target range for the federal funds rate.
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