Bridgewater released a research report pointing out that current carbon pricing mechanisms cover approximately 30% of global emissions, mainly dominated by the emissions trading systems of the European Union and China. The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is amplifying its impact and promoting the adoption of carbon pricing worldwide.
Read originalBridgewater released a research report on January 7, 2026, estimating that AI capital spending will contribute about 140 basis points to U.S. GDP growth in 2026 and about 150 basis points in 2027, a scale comparable to the contribution of business investment to growth during the dot-com bubble.
Read originalBridgewater released a study on November 13, 2025, analyzing Canada's response path under U.S. high tariffs and USMCA uncertainty. The report notes that Canada's GDP contracted in Q2 2025, after which it adopted a three-pillar strategy of trade diversification, fiscal expansion, and loose monetary policy, aiming to double non-U.S. exports within a decade and add over CAD 300 billion in trade volume. The fiscal deficit for FY2025-26 reached CAD 78 billion, accounting for 2.5% of GDP. The Bank of Canada maintains an accommodative stance, and initial signs of stabilization have emerged in manufacturing orders, residential construction, and the labor market.
Read originalBridgewater released a research report outlining the energy supply and security landscape across the U.S., China, and Europe in the context of modern mercantilism. The report notes that cheap and abundant electricity is critical to the AI race and national competitiveness, and governments are now making energy self-sufficiency a core policy priority. The report also analyzes the differentiated challenges and advantages of the three regions in energy supply chains and power capacity expansion.
Read originalBridgewater released a research report, arguing that the inflation center in the post-pandemic era has risen compared with that before the pandemic, 2% is more like a bottom than an upper limit, and the distribution of inflation outcomes is wider and skewed upward. The report compares the current environment with that in the 2010s, pointing out that restraining factors such as China's export of low-priced goods, shale oil production, and post-crisis deleveraging have weakened; while the medium-term expansion deficit of about 7% of US GDP, the compromised independence of the Federal Reserve, tariffs and trade restructuring, potential depreciation of the US dollar, and AI power and commodity demand constitute structural inflationary pressures.
Read originalBridgewater, in collaboration with Eclipse, released the second part of its series on reviving U.S. manufacturing, pointing out that U.S. manufacturing lacks competitiveness due to high labor costs and a weak industrial base, and tariffs cannot bridge the cost gap. The report proposes leveraging mature technologies such as automation, computer vision, and additive manufacturing, as well as cutting-edge technologies like generative AI and embodied AI, to boost manufacturing productivity by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude. Scaling the application of these technologies is expected to take nearly a decade.
Read originalBridgewater, in partnership with industrial technology investment firm Eclipse, released a study exploring the structural challenges of reviving U.S. manufacturing. Currently, about 40% of goods consumed in the U.S. rely on imports, with a manufacturing job gap of nearly 5 million over the past 20 years. For some product categories, even a 25% tariff cannot close the gap between domestic and foreign production costs. U.S. manufacturing productivity has stagnated for 15 years, and boosting productivity is the core path to enhancing the competitiveness of domestic manufacturing.
Read originalBridgewater released a research report on March 19, 2025, noting that energy policies in major global economies are shifting from a climate-first approach to prioritizing energy security and industrial competitiveness. The current energy landscape is characterized by incremental additions rather than a transition-driven replacement, with fossil fuels and renewable energy growing simultaneously, though the pace of decarbonization will slow.
Read originalBridgewater research indicates that since 2010, the excess returns of U.S. stocks relative to developed markets have been roughly equally driven by revenue growth, margin expansion, and rising P/E multiples, with a stronger U.S. dollar further boosting returns for unhedged global investors. The technology sector contributed 54% of the excess returns, of which 22% came from index overweights in technology and 32% from U.S. tech companies significantly outperforming their global peers.
Read originalThe Bridgewater research team believes the AI bubble has not yet arrived, noting that the transformative technology and mature macro monetary environment needed to fuel a major bubble are already in place. This view addresses market concerns about AI valuations, commercialization, and slowing technological progress, while also highlighting risks of AI misuse and regulatory uncertainty. Bridgewater established AIA Labs in early 2023 with the goal of building a fully AI-driven investor that can outperform humans.
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