Alpha Architect interprets a 2026 paper by Andreasen and Bro published in the Review of Finance. The study combines traditional valuation data with investor expectation surveys to propose a new method for distinguishing between fundamental-driven price increases and speculative bubbles.
Read originalThis study proposes a general theoretical framework for identifying economically relevant latent variables such as willingness to pay and preference intensity through response time data, unifying and extending existing literature conclusions. The framework can be applied to three empirical scenarios: identifying optimal nudges, testing diminishing marginal happiness of income, and predicting processing heterogeneity.
Read originalThis arXiv paper proposes constructing probability weighting functions from changes in return distributions rather than parameter families, with the formula w(p)=F_post(F_prior^{-1}(p)). Both the prior and posterior are normal tempered-stable distributions, and the posterior differs from the prior along three independent channels—scale, skewness, and tail thickness—under the premise of fixed variance.
Read originalAgent-based simulation research based on the capitalist economic model proposed by Ian Wright shows that the ratio R of average per capita wealth to average wage is the core parameter determining the degree of wealth and income distribution inequality; a higher R value corresponds to a higher level of inequality measured by the Gini coefficient.
Read originalThis study extends the classical Black-Scholes market framework to infinite-dimensional scenarios, modeling asset prices with stochastic evolution equations in separable Hilbert spaces, deriving an infinite-dimensional Black-Scholes equation, and establishing exact replication results for strong solutions and asymptotic replication results for weak solutions. The study also introduces Hilbert lattice structures to characterize no-arbitrage conditions, provides sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of equivalent risk-neutral measures, and explicit pricing formulas for some tractable cases; the model can be interpreted as a segmented market composed of a series of one-dimensional geometric Brownian motions.
Read originalThis follow-up study builds on 'Eclipse of Rent-Sharing' by Acemoglu, He and le Maire, analyzing a sample of 7,000 firm-year observations across 695 companies from 2015 to 2025.
Read originalThis study examines the Merton consumption-investment problem under the Itô, Stratonovich, and Hänggi-Klimontovich conventions, corresponding to stochastic integral convention parameter α = 0, 1/2, and 1, respectively. The study finds that if the drift term is transformed synchronously, the optimal investment strategy is unaffected by the choice of convention; if the drift coefficient value is fixed, the investor's opportunity set will change. Under logarithmic utility, consumption decisions are unaffected, but the optimal portfolio weights shift, and the stochastic integral convention cannot be identified using return data alone.
Read originalThis 16-page paper, accepted by MARBLE 2026, argues that crypto-exchange stock-like perpetual contracts calculate funding rates from the real-time basis and cannot replicate shareholder dividend cash flows for traders entering or exiting at arbitrary times. The authors derive a fair funding-rate identity, convert point-in-time fairness into an optimal stopping condition, and use measure theory to show that predictable dividends are atomic events. Absolutely continuous funding-rate paths cannot replicate this atom over a holding interval and must be matched with discrete event credits.
Read originalThe AI boom is becoming an ESG test. The water and electricity consumption of AI data centers will affect corporate profit margins, capital expenditures, and return on investment. Cross-industry investment portfolios may collectively face ESG exposure from data center expansion and power bottlenecks.
Read originalThe CFA Institute research team reviewed the 2025 fiscal year financial reports of 50 large global listed companies, finding that their book-disclosed investments in joint ventures totaled $351 billion, while total actual exposure reached $612 billion after reconstructing five layers of exposure. The difference stems from risks not recorded in individual line items, including shareholder loans, guarantees, and unpaid capital contributions.
Read originalWhen evaluating AI heat risk models used in company valuations, investors should focus on whether they fully cover the entire transmission chain from heat hazards to asset exposure, operational sensitivity, financial impact, and ultimately valuation. Existing heat risk estimates from different institutions show significant discrepancies and often omit key impact dimensions such as employee productivity. Investors can reference the case of Électricité de France (EDF) and require companies to disclose quantifiable operational thresholds, financial sensitivities, and adaptation costs to determine whether heat-related losses are already reflected in company value.
Read originalNew York University Professor Aswath Damodaran reviewed the performance of US stocks in September 2026: the 10-year US Treasury yield rose from 4.75% to 5.29% during the month, an increase of 54 basis points, placing it in the top 10% of 770 monthly changes since 1962. Despite this, the total market capitalization of US stocks still increased by $2.5 trillion during the month, with nearly $1.5 trillion of that increase coming from the technology sector.
Read originalAlpha Architect interprets the paper "Competition, complexity, and security design: evidence from retail investment products" published in the Review of Finance in 2026. This study takes yield-enhancement products in the Swiss market as a sample and finds that issuers deliberately increase product complexity to weaken price competition when competition intensifies.
Read originalAlpha Architect published an interpretive article by Larry Swedroe introducing the research "What drives the Asset Growth-return Relation: Mispricing or Risk?" published in July 2026 by Zhuo Cheng, Daniel Cohen, and Jing Fang.
Read originalNYU Professor Aswath Damodaran reviews the backdrop of rising U.S. Treasury yields in 2026, noting that the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.18% at the start of the year to 4.75% by the end of August, while 20-year and 30-year Treasury yields surpassed 5% during the year. He also compares the long-term trend of U.S. Treasury yields since 1962, as well as concurrent changes in government bond yields across multiple currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound.
Key Takeaways:One can learn to construct an intrinsic risk-free rate using the inflation rate plus real GDP growth, and combine it with changes in corporate cash flows to break down the differentiated impact of rising interest rates on stock valuations across industries.
Aswath Damodaran, a professor at NYU Stern School of Business, writes that the current venture capital industry generally prioritizes corporate expansion over profitability, a tendency that has become more pronounced over the past two decades. He breaks down six core factors influencing a company's expansion potential, including market size, market growth rate, industry structure, capital intensity, customer inertia, and dependence on key individuals. He also identifies the key variables determining a company's profitability feasibility as unit economics, economies of scale, and competitive barriers.
Key Takeaways:You can master an analytical framework that distinguishes between a company's expansion potential and profitability feasibility, using market size, unit economics, economies of scale, and competitive barriers to judge whether a startup's expansion choices are reasonable.
NYU valuation professor Aswath Damodaran published a lengthy article proposing a four-stage framework for revolutionary change, arguing that AI is currently entering its coming-of-age phase, shifting from investment and infrastructure building to commercial implementation. The article notes that since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022, the Mag Seven contributed 45% of the total increase in U.S. stock market capitalization from 2022 to 2025. Six leading AI companies have cumulatively spent $1.7 trillion in capital expenditures, while the current upper bound of total revenue from AI products and services is only about $250 billion.
Read originalAswath Damodaran, a valuation professor at New York University, uses the complete journey of Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness hedge fund—from explosive growth to liquidation following a blowup—as a case study to systematically break down the definition, sources, and real-world impact of investment conviction.
Read originalAswath Damodaran, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, wrote an article analyzing the SEC's proposal to replace quarterly reports with semi-annual reports alongside new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's proposal to reduce forward guidance, arguing that both are essentially reducing the amount of public information that markets have become accustomed to receiving.
Read originalAswath Damodaran, Professor at New York University Stern School of Business, released the July 2026 edition of his country risk research, systematically outlining the drivers, measurement methods, and impact on corporate valuation and investment.
Key Takeaways:You can learn the complete process of deriving country risk premiums for each country starting from the implied equity risk premium of mature markets, combined with sovereign ratings, default spreads, and relative volatility between stocks and bonds.
The article analyzes three profitability metrics: EBITDA, EBITA, and EBIT. It is published in the Financial Analysts Journal, Volume 82, Issue 3, 2026, pages 59-77.
Read originalThe Financial Analysts Journal, Volume 82, Issue 3 (Q3 2026), pages 5 to 14, published a tribute to Martin Leibowitz, reviewing his relevant contributions to the financial field. This content is a commemorative article recently released by the journal.
Read originalPublished in the Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 82, No. 3, Q3 2026, pp. 43-58. This article explores the early development of equity premium theory, focusing on why E. L. Smith failed to perceive the negative impact of deflation.
Read originalNYU Professor Aswath Damodaran analyzes whether SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic should be included in the S&P 500 after their IPOs. He breaks down index construction, including constituent selection, weighting methods, and index unit conversion mechanisms. He notes that the S&P 500 uses free-float market capitalization weighting, and that the June 15, 2026 closing level of 7554.29 corresponds to an index unit of 0.1190.
Read originalCarbon Beta is a market-based measure of climate transition risk exposure. This study is published in the Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 82, No. 3, Q3 2026, pp. 111-137.
Read originalAn examination of Morningstar's 'Mind the Gap' study shows that poor market timing did not cost investors 15% of fund returns. The study is published in the Financial Analysts Journal, Volume 82, Issue 3, pages 34-42, 2026.
Read originalBridgewater research indicates that since 2010, the excess returns of U.S. stocks relative to developed markets have been roughly equally driven by revenue growth, margin expansion, and rising P/E multiples, with a stronger U.S. dollar further boosting returns for unhedged global investors. The technology sector contributed 54% of the excess returns, of which 22% came from index overweights in technology and 32% from U.S. tech companies significantly outperforming their global peers.
Read originalThe Bridgewater research team believes the AI bubble has not yet arrived, noting that the transformative technology and mature macro monetary environment needed to fuel a major bubble are already in place. This view addresses market concerns about AI valuations, commercialization, and slowing technological progress, while also highlighting risks of AI misuse and regulatory uncertainty. Bridgewater established AIA Labs in early 2023 with the goal of building a fully AI-driven investor that can outperform humans.
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