Building AI on Credit: Structure and Spillover Effects

Research from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) notes that capital expenditure for AI infrastructure is growing rapidly, increasingly financed through long-term debt and complex off-balance-sheet arrangements. Off-balance-sheet commitments by a small number of large firms can alter the credit ratings of related debt, attracting institutional capital, while banks often lend simultaneously to the related vehicles and to investors holding that debt. On days with AI financing-related news in 2026, spillover effects on the U.S. Treasury and investment-grade bond markets were small and short-lived, but continued issuance at the current pace could change this.