UBS Analyzes the Energy Impact of a Super El Niño and 'Black Swan' Winter Weather Risks

UBS's energy team, together with meteorologist James Block, assesses the impact of a super El Niño on energy markets. This El Niño is the strongest since modern sea surface temperature monitoring began in the 1950s, and is expected to peak in January and return to normal by May 2027. Major energy demand regions in the Northern Hemisphere are likely to be warmer than average, which will reduce winter heating energy demand. However, there remains a risk of short-term extreme blizzards, ice storms, and other 'black swan' weather events from late January to early February.