Alpha Architect interprets a 2026 paper by Andreasen and Bro published in the Review of Finance. The study combines traditional valuation data with investor expectation surveys to propose a new method for distinguishing between fundamental-driven price increases and speculative bubbles.
Read originalBased on 4.57 million news articles covering approximately 3,000 US stocks from 2023 to 2026, the paper uses a compact classifier distilled from a large model teacher to label news with 17 event categories and 5 attributes, clustering them into 1.68 million stock-day events, of which 364,405 are neutral sentiment events serving as a placebo.
Read originalThis arXiv paper applies 7 sets of Islamic finance screening rules to a sample of 1.34 million monthly observations of U.S. securities from 1999 to 2024, and backtests and compares them on a unified threshold-anchored scale. The results show that the disagreement across the sets of rules reaches 35.9% across all compliant industry observations, and the disagreement in financial ratio screening alone reaches 47.3%. Under AAOIFI's market value denominator rule, changes in market value alone are sufficient to explain 65.6% of non-compliance events, and half of the denominator-driven non-compliances reverse within 3 months.
Read originalThis study introduces LOBGrad, a conditional DDPM framework for probabilistic order book forecasting. The framework combines an autoregressive RNN encoder with a diffusion-based generator, and establishes an excess-risk oracle inequality for the single-step DDPM noise prediction objective under exponential mixing and regularity assumptions.
Read originalThe paper proposes RegimeRank, an interpretable industry ranking model that frames industry rotation decisions as a task of ranking industry actions by future risk-adjusted active returns, using the forward-looking industry benchmark Sharpe ratio as the measurement metric. The model represents fundamental and technical signals through expert-defined time-series features, uses cross-attention to condition on learned macro factors, then models cross-industry dependencies through self-attention, while using expected gradient attribution to identify the contribution of individual signal-transformation pairs.
Read originalThis 9-page paper accepted by ICAIF '26 proposes a diagnostic protocol to examine the true source of incremental information from LLM embeddings of r/WallStreetBets posts for volatility prediction. The study covers panel data of 202,145 mentioned stock-days from 2015 to 2022, using a retrospective rolling out-of-sample test.
Read originalThis follow-up study builds on 'Eclipse of Rent-Sharing' by Acemoglu, He and le Maire, analyzing a sample of 7,000 firm-year observations across 695 companies from 2015 to 2025.
Read originalResearchers propose OrderFlowDiT, a conditional diffusion Transformer trained with an unbalanced optimal transport (UOT) auxiliary loss, to predict the conditional distribution of limit order submissions over the next five minutes. Across 1,950 validation conditions covering 30 U.S. stocks, adding UOT reduces the full-field transport cost by 45.8% and the transport energy score by 26.1% compared with training using only mean squared error, with improvements in both metrics for every stock.
Read originalThis arXiv paper proposes a NoLBERT encoder pre-trained only on texts from 1976 to 1995, comparing it with LDA, MiniLM, and FinBERT on 1.26 million news articles from 2012 to 2024 to predict returns of the 1000 largest U.S. stocks.
Read originalQuantocracy compiled recent quant research links on October 15, 2026. This roundup includes Allocate Smartly's backtest of the OptimumV strategy from Financial Mentor (backtest period starting in 1987).
Read originalThe CFA Institute research team reviewed the 2025 fiscal year financial reports of 50 large global listed companies, finding that their book-disclosed investments in joint ventures totaled $351 billion, while total actual exposure reached $612 billion after reconstructing five layers of exposure. The difference stems from risks not recorded in individual line items, including shareholder loans, guarantees, and unpaid capital contributions.
Read originalAnalysis of 401(k) plan filings from 2013 to 2023 by the CFA Institute Research and Policy Center shows that the average expense ratio of 401(k) investment menus fell from 0.69% to 0.39%, with declines in both active and index fund fees, and the fee gap between small and large plans has essentially closed. Fund quality also improved over the same period, with the weighted average of Morningstar Medalist ratings rising from 3.45 to 3.85, and lower-cost funds often receiving higher ratings.
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