Skip to main content
17 OctSat
16 OctFri
9 OctFri
  1. Aswath Damodaran:Musings on Markets51

    Damodaran: AI Capital Expenditure Effects Emerge, US Stocks Remain Supported Despite Rising Treasury Yields in September

    New York University Professor Aswath Damodaran reviewed the performance of US stocks in September 2026: the 10-year US Treasury yield rose from 4.75% to 5.29% during the month, an increase of 54 basis points, placing it in the top 10% of 770 monthly changes since 1962. Despite this, the total market capitalization of US stocks still increased by $2.5 trillion during the month, with nearly $1.5 trillion of that increase coming from the technology sector.

    Read original
8 OctThu
  1. Federal Reserve: Speeches55

    Fed Governor Waller: The Signal Value of the Summary of Economic Projections and the Logic Behind the September Rate Hike Decision

    Fed Governor Waller delivered a speech at the Central Bank of Türkiye, explaining the rationale behind the September FOMC decision to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, and elaborating on the signaling role of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). He stated that the September rate hike was not based on a single inflation data point, but rather the cumulative result of multiple factors over recent months, including stabilization in the labor market, energy price increases driven by Middle East conflicts, high-tech consumer price increases driven by AI construction, and new tariff risks arising from trade conflicts.

    Read original
1 OctThu
  1. Federal Reserve: Speeches47

    Fed Governor Lisa Cook: The Dual Mission in Rural America

    Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivered remarks at the first nationwide Investing in Rural America conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. She noted that rural labor markets broadly track national trends, but with lower labor force participation and slower employment growth than urban areas in recent years. Rural inflation has largely aligned with national trends, though cost-of-living increases outpaced urban areas during the post-pandemic recovery, with energy and housing costs as the primary sources of divergence.

    Read original
22 SeptTue
  1. Howard Marks Memos34

    Howard Marks' Latest Memo: Should We Abolish the Laws of Economics (Part III)

    In his latest memo, Howard Marks explores recent attempts to suppress long-term government bond yields. He states clearly that the only sustainable solution is to address the underlying factors driving interest rates higher, even if such measures face political resistance. Any other approach is essentially an attempt to defy the laws of economics, and such attempts have never succeeded.

    Read original
11 SeptFri
  1. Aswath Damodaran:Musings on Markets60

    Damodaran: Re-examining the Relationship Between Rising Interest Rates and Stock Prices in 2026

    NYU Professor Aswath Damodaran reviews the backdrop of rising U.S. Treasury yields in 2026, noting that the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.18% at the start of the year to 4.75% by the end of August, while 20-year and 30-year Treasury yields surpassed 5% during the year. He also compares the long-term trend of U.S. Treasury yields since 1962, as well as concurrent changes in government bond yields across multiple currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound.

    Key Takeaways:One can learn to construct an intrinsic risk-free rate using the inflation rate plus real GDP growth, and combine it with changes in corporate cash flows to break down the differentiated impact of rising interest rates on stock valuations across industries.

    Read original
10 SeptThu
  1. AQR: Research29

    The core competitiveness of quantitative investment in the AI era lies in human creativity and emotional intelligence

    AQR co-founder and dean of Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management co-authored an article pointing out that AI can automate most analytical and technical capabilities in quantitative investment, making creativity and emotional intelligence enduring competitive advantages that are difficult to replace. AQR is leveraging the Quanta Academy, launched in 2015, to expand relevant capability development, while Kellogg School of Management also promotes students’ simultaneous development of analytical skills and soft skills through programs such as MBAi. Research shows that the impact of AI on empathy is not fixed, and depends on tool design choices and organizational culture building.

    Read original
3 SeptThu
  1. Aswath Damodaran:Musings on Markets60

    Aswath Damodaran analyzes the tradeoff between expansion and profitability: the weakest link in venture capital

    Aswath Damodaran, a professor at NYU Stern School of Business, writes that the current venture capital industry generally prioritizes corporate expansion over profitability, a tendency that has become more pronounced over the past two decades. He breaks down six core factors influencing a company's expansion potential, including market size, market growth rate, industry structure, capital intensity, customer inertia, and dependence on key individuals. He also identifies the key variables determining a company's profitability feasibility as unit economics, economies of scale, and competitive barriers.

    Key Takeaways:You can master an analytical framework that distinguishes between a company's expansion potential and profitability feasibility, using market size, unit economics, economies of scale, and competitive barriers to judge whether a startup's expansion choices are reasonable.

    Read original
21 AugFri
  1. Aswath Damodaran:Musings on Markets59

    AI's Coming-of-Age Moment: From Hype and Vision to Business Questions

    NYU valuation professor Aswath Damodaran published a lengthy article proposing a four-stage framework for revolutionary change, arguing that AI is currently entering its coming-of-age phase, shifting from investment and infrastructure building to commercial implementation. The article notes that since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022, the Mag Seven contributed 45% of the total increase in U.S. stock market capitalization from 2022 to 2025. Six leading AI companies have cumulatively spent $1.7 trillion in capital expenditures, while the current upper bound of total revenue from AI products and services is only about $250 billion.

    Read original
11 AugTue
  1. Aswath Damodaran:Musings on Markets56

    Damodaran on the Situational Awareness fund blowup: the collateral damage of investment conviction

    Aswath Damodaran, a valuation professor at New York University, uses the complete journey of Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness hedge fund—from explosive growth to liquidation following a blowup—as a case study to systematically break down the definition, sources, and real-world impact of investment conviction.

    Read original
4 AugTue
  1. Bridgewater: Research & Insights47

    Bridgewater's Thoughts on the Most Important Policy Decision of Our Lifetime

    Bridgewater has published an AI policy commentary arguing that AI is the most impactful technological change of our time, and that policy must be enacted immediately to balance its productivity benefits against risks of social disruption and safety incidents. Bridgewater proposes that US AI policy must prioritize societal resilience to technological shocks and establish a robust AI safety regulatory framework; otherwise, AI development will be forced to stall due to political unsustainability or major incidents.

    Read original
30 JulThu
  1. Aswath Damodaran:Musings on Markets54

    Aswath Damodaran: Disclosure and Timing – The Earnings Guidance Game

    Aswath Damodaran, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, wrote an article analyzing the SEC's proposal to replace quarterly reports with semi-annual reports alongside new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's proposal to reduce forward guidance, arguing that both are essentially reducing the amount of public information that markets have become accustomed to receiving.

    Read original
19 JunFri
  1. Aswath Damodaran:Musings on Markets55

    SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic: S&P 500 Inclusion Controversy and Investment Implications

    NYU Professor Aswath Damodaran analyzes whether SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic should be included in the S&P 500 after their IPOs. He breaks down index construction, including constituent selection, weighting methods, and index unit conversion mechanisms. He notes that the S&P 500 uses free-float market capitalization weighting, and that the June 15, 2026 closing level of 7554.29 corresponds to an index unit of 0.1190.

    Read original
9 AprThu
  1. Howard Marks Memos42

    Howard Marks Memo: Current Dynamics in the Private Credit Space

    In his latest memo, Howard Marks outlines the evolution of the sub-investment grade credit market from the 1970s to the present, focusing on analyzing the drivers behind the rapid growth of direct lending after the global financial crisis, as well as the related issues brought by the rapid deployment of large-scale capital. He points out that the development of direct lending is deeply tied to that of private equity, and the performance of private equity portfolio companies is the core determinant of whether direct loans will succeed in the future.

    Read original
24 MarTue
26 NovWed
  1. Bridgewater: Research & Insights42

    The Release of Google Gemini 3 Signals the Start of an AI Industry “Resource Grab” Phase

    Bridgewater Co-Chief Investment Officer Greg Jensen and AIA Labs Chief Scientist Jas Sekhon released a viewpoint arguing that Google Gemini 3 is currently the strongest publicly available general-purpose large AI model, with pre-training compute at least 2–3 times higher than GPT-4o, validating that the path of scaling pre-training remains sustainable. This development will drive the AI industry to continue increasing investment in compute, chips, and power, with significant implications for capital markets and the economy.

    Read original