Research Directions
How interest rates, inflation, and central-bank policy transmit to various asset classes.
73 related activitiesLast 30 days 42 itemsFeatured among them 5 items
In his latest memo, Howard Marks explores recent attempts to suppress long-term government bond yields. He states clearly that the only sustainable solution is to address the underlying factors driving interest rates higher, even if such measures face political resistance. Any other approach is essentially an attempt to defy the laws of economics, and such attempts have never succeeded.
Read originalBridgewater released a research report pointing out that current carbon pricing mechanisms cover approximately 30% of global emissions, mainly dominated by the emissions trading systems of the European Union and China. The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is amplifying its impact and promoting the adoption of carbon pricing worldwide.
Read originalBlock Scholes released its Week 38 crypto derivatives market analysis report. The current market prices in a 93% probability of a rate hike at the Fed's next-day meeting, while the probability of the Clarity Act passing by the end of 2026 on Polymarket has dropped to 19%.
Read originalThe Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee have released economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with related tables and charts published at 2:00 p.m. ET. The projection materials are available in PDF format, accompanied by accessible versions. Media inquiries can be directed to the designated email address or contact phone number.
Read originalThe Federal Reserve released its FOMC monetary policy statement on September 16, 2026, deciding by a unanimous vote of 12 in favor and 0 against to raise the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate objectives.
Read originalAQR has updated its previous analysis of inflation sensitivity and inflation hedging, based on over 50 years of market data. While global inflation has fallen rapidly from its 2022 peak, inflation uncertainty persists in major markets, stock-bond correlations are at multi-decade highs, and traditional stock-bond portfolios are vulnerable to simultaneous losses during inflation shocks. Commodities and trend-following strategies perform strongly during inflation upcycles and can serve as inflation diversification tools, with implementation methods significantly affecting long-term returns and macro diversification outcomes.
Read originalNYU Professor Aswath Damodaran reviews the backdrop of rising U.S. Treasury yields in 2026, noting that the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.18% at the start of the year to 4.75% by the end of August, while 20-year and 30-year Treasury yields surpassed 5% during the year. He also compares the long-term trend of U.S. Treasury yields since 1962, as well as concurrent changes in government bond yields across multiple currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound.
Key Takeaways:One can learn to construct an intrinsic risk-free rate using the inflation rate plus real GDP growth, and combine it with changes in corporate cash flows to break down the differentiated impact of rising interest rates on stock valuations across industries.
HKEX, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and Nasdaq Dubai jointly announced the establishment of a strategic working group to deepen financial market connectivity between Hong Kong and the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC).
Read originalEpisode 125 of Deribit's Crypto Options Unplugged podcast, hosted by Imran Lakha and David Brickell, explores whether pressure in the global bond market could serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin's next major move.
Read originalOn August 25, 2026, the Federal Reserve Board released the minutes of its discount rate meetings held on July 20 and July 29, 2026, covering the review and determination of the discount rate offered to depository institutions through the discount window. The process for setting this discount rate is independent of the Federal Open Market Committee's process for setting the target range for the federal funds rate.
Read originalFINRA has issued Regulatory Notice 26-16, amending TRACE rules to extend the proprietary trading indicator, previously applicable only to non-member affiliate transactions, to member affiliate transactions. The voluntary compliance period for this amendment begins August 31, 2026, with a mandatory effective date of August 2, 2027. The rule text is available in the FINRA Online Manual.
Read originalThe Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC monetary policy meeting on August 19, 2026. The minutes were prepared based on the economic and financial information available to the Committee at the time of the meeting. FOMC regular meeting minutes are typically released three weeks after the policy decision is made. The minutes are available on the Federal Reserve Board's website in both HTML and PDF formats.
Read originalBridgewater has published an AI policy commentary arguing that AI is the most impactful technological change of our time, and that policy must be enacted immediately to balance its productivity benefits against risks of social disruption and safety incidents. Bridgewater proposes that US AI policy must prioritize societal resilience to technological shocks and establish a robust AI safety regulatory framework; otherwise, AI development will be forced to stall due to political unsustainability or major incidents.
Read originalAswath Damodaran, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, wrote an article analyzing the SEC's proposal to replace quarterly reports with semi-annual reports alongside new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's proposal to reduce forward guidance, arguing that both are essentially reducing the amount of public information that markets have become accustomed to receiving.
Read originalThe Federal Reserve released the FOMC monetary policy statement on July 29, 2026, voting 9-3 to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, continuing to implement a policy of ample reserves in the banking system.
Read originalAswath Damodaran, Professor at New York University Stern School of Business, released the July 2026 edition of his country risk research, systematically outlining the drivers, measurement methods, and impact on corporate valuation and investment.
Key Takeaways:You can learn the complete process of deriving country risk premiums for each country starting from the implied equity risk premium of mature markets, combined with sovereign ratings, default spreads, and relative volatility between stocks and bonds.
On July 14, 2026, the Federal Reserve Board released the minutes of its discount rate meetings held on June 8 and June 17, 2026, covering the review and determination of the discount rate offered to depository institutions through the discount window. The process for setting this discount rate is independent of the Federal Open Market Committee's process for setting the target range for the federal funds rate.
Read originalQuantLib 1.43 is officially released, with two download packages available: QuantLib-1.43.tar.gz and QuantLib-1.43.zip.
Read originalFINRA has amended Rule 3210 (Accounts at Other Broker-Dealers and Financial Institutions) to add an exemption for Trump Accounts established under Section 530A of the Internal Revenue Code, with the rule change effective June 17, 2026. Trump Accounts are special traditional IRAs established for eligible individuals under the age of 18. This exemption applies only to such accounts and their compliant investment transactions, and the revised text is attached as Appendix A to the notice.
Read originalThe Financial Analysts Journal, Volume 82, Issue 3 (Q3 2026), pages 5 to 14, published a tribute to Martin Leibowitz, reviewing his relevant contributions to the financial field. This content is a commemorative article recently released by the journal.
Read original
