Research Directions
How interest rates, inflation, and central-bank policy transmit to various asset classes.
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QuantLib 1.42.1 is a bug-fix release that removes a regression in the Gsr class which could cause an infinite notification loop. This release provides two installation packages: QuantLib-1.42.1.tar.gz and QuantLib-1.42.1.zip. The related changes were committed by @lballabio in #2543, and the final version number was set by @lballabio-bot in #2545.
Read originalIn his latest memo, Howard Marks outlines the evolution of the sub-investment grade credit market from the 1970s to the present, focusing on analyzing the drivers behind the rapid growth of direct lending after the global financial crisis, as well as the related issues brought by the rapid deployment of large-scale capital. He points out that the development of direct lending is deeply tied to that of private equity, and the performance of private equity portfolio companies is the core determinant of whether direct loans will succeed in the future.
Read originalIn a special episode of The Insight: Conversations, Howard Marks shares his reflections on themes from Oaktree Capital's recent client conference. The discussion covers the evolution of credit markets, the nature of asset mispricing, and the importance of leadership.
Read originalBridgewater released a research report on January 7, 2026, estimating that AI capital spending will contribute about 140 basis points to U.S. GDP growth in 2026 and about 150 basis points in 2027, a scale comparable to the contribution of business investment to growth during the dot-com bubble.
Read originalBridgewater Co-Chief Investment Officer Greg Jensen and AIA Labs Chief Scientist Jas Sekhon released a viewpoint arguing that Google Gemini 3 is currently the strongest publicly available general-purpose large AI model, with pre-training compute at least 2–3 times higher than GPT-4o, validating that the path of scaling pre-training remains sustainable. This development will drive the AI industry to continue increasing investment in compute, chips, and power, with significant implications for capital markets and the economy.
Read originalBridgewater released a study on November 13, 2025, analyzing Canada's response path under U.S. high tariffs and USMCA uncertainty. The report notes that Canada's GDP contracted in Q2 2025, after which it adopted a three-pillar strategy of trade diversification, fiscal expansion, and loose monetary policy, aiming to double non-U.S. exports within a decade and add over CAD 300 billion in trade volume. The fiscal deficit for FY2025-26 reached CAD 78 billion, accounting for 2.5% of GDP. The Bank of Canada maintains an accommodative stance, and initial signs of stabilization have emerged in manufacturing orders, residential construction, and the labor market.
Read originalBridgewater released a research report outlining the energy supply and security landscape across the U.S., China, and Europe in the context of modern mercantilism. The report notes that cheap and abundant electricity is critical to the AI race and national competitiveness, and governments are now making energy self-sufficiency a core policy priority. The report also analyzes the differentiated challenges and advantages of the three regions in energy supply chains and power capacity expansion.
Read originalBridgewater released a research report, arguing that the inflation center in the post-pandemic era has risen compared with that before the pandemic, 2% is more like a bottom than an upper limit, and the distribution of inflation outcomes is wider and skewed upward. The report compares the current environment with that in the 2010s, pointing out that restraining factors such as China's export of low-priced goods, shale oil production, and post-crisis deleveraging have weakened; while the medium-term expansion deficit of about 7% of US GDP, the compromised independence of the Federal Reserve, tariffs and trade restructuring, potential depreciation of the US dollar, and AI power and commodity demand constitute structural inflationary pressures.
Read originalBridgewater, in collaboration with Eclipse, released the second part of its series on reviving U.S. manufacturing, pointing out that U.S. manufacturing lacks competitiveness due to high labor costs and a weak industrial base, and tariffs cannot bridge the cost gap. The report proposes leveraging mature technologies such as automation, computer vision, and additive manufacturing, as well as cutting-edge technologies like generative AI and embodied AI, to boost manufacturing productivity by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude. Scaling the application of these technologies is expected to take nearly a decade.
Read originalBridgewater, in partnership with industrial technology investment firm Eclipse, released a study exploring the structural challenges of reviving U.S. manufacturing. Currently, about 40% of goods consumed in the U.S. rely on imports, with a manufacturing job gap of nearly 5 million over the past 20 years. For some product categories, even a 25% tariff cannot close the gap between domestic and foreign production costs. U.S. manufacturing productivity has stagnated for 15 years, and boosting productivity is the core path to enhancing the competitiveness of domestic manufacturing.
Read originalBridgewater released a research report on March 19, 2025, noting that energy policies in major global economies are shifting from a climate-first approach to prioritizing energy security and industrial competitiveness. The current energy landscape is characterized by incremental additions rather than a transition-driven replacement, with fossil fuels and renewable energy growing simultaneously, though the pace of decarbonization will slow.
Read originalBridgewater research indicates that since 2010, the excess returns of U.S. stocks relative to developed markets have been roughly equally driven by revenue growth, margin expansion, and rising P/E multiples, with a stronger U.S. dollar further boosting returns for unhedged global investors. The technology sector contributed 54% of the excess returns, of which 22% came from index overweights in technology and 32% from U.S. tech companies significantly outperforming their global peers.
Read originalThe Bridgewater research team believes the AI bubble has not yet arrived, noting that the transformative technology and mature macro monetary environment needed to fuel a major bubble are already in place. This view addresses market concerns about AI valuations, commercialization, and slowing technological progress, while also highlighting risks of AI misuse and regulatory uncertainty. Bridgewater established AIA Labs in early 2023 with the goal of building a fully AI-driven investor that can outperform humans.
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